BTC Price Prediction: 2025-2040 Forecasts and Key Drivers

#BTC

• Institutional Adoption: Spot ETF inflows and miner HODLing reduce circulating supply
• Technical Strength: Price above key MAs and Bollinger midpoint supports bullish thesis
• Political Tailwinds: Trump's endorsement may accelerate mainstream acceptance

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge

According to BTCC financial analyst John, BTC is currently trading at 107,457.63 USDT, above its 20-day moving average of 105,822.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD shows a slight bearish crossover, but the price remains within the upper Bollinger Band (109,988.60), suggesting potential upward momentum. John notes that if BTC holds above the middle band (105,822.30), it could target 115,000 USDT in the NEAR term.

Market Sentiment: Institutional Demand and Political Support Boost BTC

BTCC analyst John highlights positive market sentiment driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulating 1,430 BTC daily and Trump's endorsement of Bitcoin. Despite miner revenue challenges, whale supply at a 6-year low may reduce selling pressure. John warns of short-term bearish positions but sees the MVRV golden cross and $2B ETF inflows as signs of a bullish breakout.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin Miners Hold On To Their Coins Despite Low Profitability

Bitcoin miners are clinging to their reserves even as profitability hits historic lows, according to on-chain data from Alphractal. Transaction fees on the Bitcoin network have plummeted to levels not seen since 2012, reflecting subdued on-chain activity this cycle.

Mining difficulty remains stubbornly high despite a recent dip in hash rate, exacerbating profitability pressures. The disconnect between these metrics delays the network's return to equilibrium. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's hash rate volatility has surged to unprecedented levels, signaling extreme fluctuations in computational power.

The resilience of miners suggests strategic positioning ahead of potential market shifts. Their refusal to liquidate holdings could indicate long-term conviction in Bitcoin's value proposition, even as short-term economics turn unfavorable.

James Wynn Shifts to Bitcoin Long After $3K Short Loss

Prominent trader James Wynn has reversed his stance on Bitcoin, closing a Leveraged short position at a $3,015.97 loss to initiate a 40x leveraged long. The pivot, tracked by on-chain analytics firm Onchain Lens, signals growing conviction in BTC's upside potential despite recent volatility.

Wynn's 6.5-hour short position incurred $1,345.07 in fees before liquidation. The swift long repositioning at identical leverage suggests algorithmic trading patterns common among professional crypto market participants.

Bitcoin Miners Hold Steady Despite Revenue Plunge

Bitcoin miners are enduring their worst payout period in a year, yet refuse to capitulate. Daily revenues cratered to $34 million on June 22—the lowest since April—as transaction fees dwindled and BTC prices retreated from all-time highs. The network hashrate dipped 3.5% since mid-June, marking the most significant decline since July 2024's 8.4% slump post-halving.

Remarkably, miner outflows tell a story of resilience. Exchange transfers have plummeted from February's 23,000 BTC daily peak to just 6,000 BTC. "This isn't panic—it's strategic patience," observes CryptoQuant's report. Miners appear to be weathering the storm, betting on future appreciation rather than liquidating at depressed levels.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Accumulate 1,430 BTC Daily as AUM Approaches 1.2M BTC Milestone

US bitcoin Spot ETFs continue to dominate market inflows, adding 1,430 BTC daily over the past three months. Institutional adoption surges as BlackRock's IBIT leads with 1,360 BTC daily deposits, while other ETFs contribute marginally.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes AUM growth from 932,000 BTC in April to 1,056,000 BTC currently - a 124,000 BTC increase in 87 days. At this trajectory, holdings could reach 1.2 million BTC by September, representing significant institutional accumulation.

The data confirms Bitcoin ETFs as a primary market driver this cycle, now controlling 6.25% of BTC's market cap. Concentration around BlackRock's product suggests institutional preference for established financial brands in crypto exposure.

Trump Endorses Bitcoin in White House Speech, Sparks Crypto Market Optimism

Former President Donald Trump voiced strong support for Bitcoin during a recent White House press conference, calling the cryptocurrency 'amazing' and highlighting its growing adoption. 'It is the jobs that it produces, and I notice more and more you pay in Bitcoin,' Trump remarked. His comments included an unexpected economic insight—that Bitcoin may alleviate pressure on the US dollar, a nod to the Triffin dilemma, which describes the conflict between national monetary policy and global reserve currency demands.

Market analysts interpret Trump's stance as a potential catalyst for another altcoin rally. His recognition of Bitcoin's macroeconomic role suggests a broader acceptance of digital assets in mainstream finance. The speech has reignited discussions about which cryptocurrencies stand to benefit most from renewed political and institutional interest.

Bitcoin Whale Supply Falls To 6-Year Low – How Will BTC Price React?

Bitcoin's recent price surge faces headwinds as whale activity signals potential profit-taking. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have offloaded over 40,000 BTC ($4.3 billion) in the past week, creating bearish pressure during a fragile rally.

The Liveliness metric's sharp increase suggests long-term holders are joining whales in selling rather than accumulating. This dual exodus of major stakeholders threatens to undermine Bitcoin's upward momentum at a critical juncture.

Market dynamics now hinge on whether retail demand can absorb this institutional sell-side pressure. Historical patterns suggest such large-scale distribution often precedes short-term corrections, though the six-year low in whale holdings may indicate longer-term redistribution.

Bitcoin Solaris Presale Gains Attention as Potential High-Performance Challenger to Bitcoin

A new cryptocurrency project, Bitcoin Solaris (BTC-S), is generating early buzz as a potential standout in the 2024-2025 bull market cycle. Positioned as a technical evolution of Bitcoin, the project claims to address scalability limitations through a dual-consensus architecture combining Proof of Work security with Delegated Proof of Stake efficiency.

The protocol boasts 10,000 TPS capacity and 2-second finality—metrics that directly target Bitcoin's legacy pain points of slow block times and network congestion. Early marketing materials frame the offering as "the flame" to Bitcoin's original "spark," suggesting ambitions beyond typical altcoin status.

Investment narratives emphasize the presale phase as a rare opportunity, drawing parallels to Bitcoin's early adoption window in 2011. However, the unproven protocol lacks exchange listings or independent technical audits at this developmental stage.

Economist Peter Schiff Criticizes Trump's Bitcoin Endorsement as Dollar-Weakening Move

President Donald Trump's vocal support for Bitcoin has sparked a sharp rebuke from economist Peter Schiff, who warns the stance could undermine the US dollar's dominance. Schiff contends that converting dollars into Bitcoin drains demand from the world's primary reserve currency, potentially triggering broader economic consequences.

The criticism follows Trump's claims that Bitcoin adoption creates jobs and relieves pressure on the dollar. Schiff counters this narrative on social media platform X, arguing that dollar-to-Bitcoin conversions actually increase strain on the currency while diverting resources from productive uses.

Market dynamics amplify the debate: Bitcoin's 30% year-to-date surge has bolstered its reputation as an inflation hedge, drawing capital away from traditional dollar holdings. The administration plans to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using forfeiture funds rather than direct dollar sales—a MOVE Schiff views as insufficient to mitigate the currency's erosion.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs See $2 Billion Inflows Amid Institutional Demand Surge

US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded over $2 billion in net inflows last week, extending a three-week streak of positive momentum. Despite initial outflows of $128.81 million in early June, investor confidence rebounded sharply, culminating in $4.63 billion in cumulative deposits over the past 21 days.

The 12 US Bitcoin ETFs posted $501.27 million in net inflows on June 27 alone, bringing the weekly total to $2.22 billion. This marks 14 consecutive days of uninterrupted inflows, according to data from SoSoValue.

BlackRock's IBIT led the pack with $1.31 billion in net deposits, while Fidelity's FBTC and Ark/21 Shares' ARKB followed with $504.40 million and $268.14 million, respectively. Grayscale's GBTC remained the sole outlier, experiencing $5.69 million in outflows.

Bitcoin MVRV Golden Cross Signals Potential Bullish Breakout

Bitcoin maintains bullish momentum above $100,000 despite market volatility, with traders anticipating a breakout into price discovery. The cryptocurrency has shown resilience after weeks of consolidation, fueling speculation of an imminent major move.

Santiment data reveals a critical on-chain development: the MVRV Ratio approaches a golden cross with its 30-day moving average. Historically, this technical pattern has preceded significant Bitcoin rallies, causing a shift in trader positioning.

While resistance persists NEAR all-time highs, the confluence of technical and on-chain indicators suggests Bitcoin may soon escape its current trading range. A confirmed breakout could catalyze the next phase of the bull market cycle.

Bitcoin Bears Take Fresh Market Positions Amid Price Recovery

Bitcoin's price volatility continues to captivate traders as the cryptocurrency rebounds above $107,000 after briefly dipping below $100,000 earlier in the week. This recovery comes despite growing bearish sentiment in the market, evidenced by a surge in short positions over the past seven days.

Analytics firm Alphractal's Liquidity Zone indicator reveals a notable shift in market dynamics. The Net Delta metric now shows more open short positions than longs, suggesting traders are increasingly betting against Bitcoin's rally. Such positioning often precedes heightened volatility, particularly when it contradicts the prevailing price trend.

The divergence between price action and market sentiment raises questions about Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. While the cryptocurrency has demonstrated resilience, the accumulation of short positions could either fuel a short squeeze or signal impending downward pressure.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Based on current technicals and institutional adoption, BTCC's John projects the following BTC price scenarios:

Key risks include macroeconomic shocks and technological disruptions.